Verra has finalized the allocated unplanned deforestation risk maps for projects in the Brazilian states of Pará and Mato Grosso that use Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) REDD methodology, VM0048 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, v1.0, and its associated module VMD0055 Estimation of Emission Reductions from Avoiding Unplanned Deforestation, v1.1. The data service providers CTrees and Clark University Center for Geospatial Analytics did the foundational work of leading on the development of these maps. This release marks an important milestone in the operationalization of this transformative methodology.

Project proponents in these states can now use these data, which meet Verra’s stringent requirements as outlined in Appendix 1 of VMD0055, to set the baseline for their projects. This is an essential step in the project registration process as it forms the basis for calculating the emission reductions achieved by the project.

Provisional data for Pará and Mato Grosso were published in December 2024 while final reviews were conducted. Verra received findings from expert reviews and feedback from stakeholders on the provisional data, which Verra has carefully assessed and, where appropriate, taken into consideration when generating the final maps.

Baseline Setting under the New REDD Methodology

Verra’s revolutionary REDD methodology, launched in November 2023, provides a robust and credible means to drive much-needed finance to forest conservation efforts that have important additional benefits for local communities. It implements a radically new approach to baseline setting that allocates project-level deforestation based on jurisdictional deforestation. The approach is led by Verra and based on data sourced from expert service providers, following a detailed process using remotely sensed data, ground observation, image interpretation, and risk modeling.

VMD0055-compliant allocated deforestation risk maps describe the rate of deforestation in a given area. For a project to determine its baseline (i.e., to determine the rate of emissions that would likely occur if the project were not implemented), Verra will spatially allocate unplanned deforestation activity data to the project area based on deforestation risk. Proponents calculate their baseline emissions by acquiring the portion(s) of jurisdictional risk maps covering the project and applicable leakage areas from Verra and applying project-specific emission factors.

Data Availability

For each jurisdiction, Verra first publishes the provisional lower-resolution (1 ha) version of the allocated deforestation risk maps (open-access data) so project proponents can use these data to conduct due diligence and explore the feasibility of registering a project using VM0048 and the associated module, VMD0055. Verra accepts feedback on the provisional maps within three weeks of the release date of these data.

To complete project registration, proponents must acquire VMD0055-compliant allocated deforestation risk maps and the risk-allocated project baseline activity data (VMD0055-compliant data).

The Allocated Deforestation Risk Maps: Timetable page shows estimated release dates for the provisional open-access data. These data are posted while final review and quality control of the data are underway. The standard procedure will be for Verra to make VMD0055-compliant data available two to three months after the release of the corresponding provisional open-access data, provided the VMD0055-compliant data clears the required third-party review. Where the review indicates a need for further improvement of VMD0055-compliant data, detailed updates about the development status and on the detected issues will be provided on the Status of VMD0055-Compliant Jurisdictional Maps of Allocated Deforestation Risk webpage.

Transitioning to the New Methodology

Proponents of Avoiding Unplanned Deforestation (AUDef) projects are required to adopt VM0048 and VMD0055 at their project’s next verification after the allocated deforestation risk map for the respective region has been available for six months.

To update a project to VM0048 and VMD0055 for future monitoring periods only, as enabled in section 3.21 of the VCS Standard, proponents have to follow the Procedure to Change Methodology through a Project Description Deviation, v4.0 (PDF).

Detailed information about the transition process and timelines for current AUDef projects is available on the Transition Process for AUD REDD Projects webpage.

Note: An update to VMD0055 is currently being developed for projects that include timber harvest activities. The updated version is expected to be available within the next few months. Until then, projects that include timber harvest activities are not required to transition to VM0048.

Obtaining the Data

To obtain the data, project proponents need to complete and submit a Project Activity Data Allocation (PADA) Request via the Verra Project Hub, which includes uploading a KML file of the project area. (The PADA Request is available via the “Forms” menu item in the top right corner of the project hub’s navigation bar; users without access to the PADA Request can request access from a list of currently inaccessible items in their dashboard or email hubsupport@verra.org.)

For information about the PADA fee for REDD projects, please see our July 2024 announcement on this topic.

The published VMD0055-compliant data is valid for two years beyond the end date of the baseline validity period (or until the new data is available).

Next Steps

Verra is currently working on a continuous improvement plan to address any issues that may arise with the VMD0055 activity data. Verra anticipates rolling out this plan by the end of 2025.

The data underlying the allocated unplanned deforestation risk maps are developed following a rigorous process that relies on data sourcing through expert data service providers and review of independent third-party data technicians.

    1. The first step in developing these risk maps is to establish jurisdictional baseline activity data, which represents the total area of unplanned deforestation within the jurisdiction, as determined by visual interpretation of high-resolution imagery over sample plots using a statistical estimator. The annual rate of deforestation observed across the jurisdiction during the Historical Reference Period (HRP) is projected forward to the Baseline Validity Period (BVP).
    2. The next step is to develop a jurisdictional forest cover benchmark map (FCBM). This is a single raster map that identifies eight forest cover transition classes and is created by determining the presence or absence of forests at three points in time: the start, midpoint, and end of the HRP.
    3. Finally, an allocated deforestation risk map is developed. This is a digital map covering the extent of the jurisdiction that indicates, for every location mapped as forest, the quantified risk of this location undergoing deforestation during the BVP. This risk is estimated via models that use explanatory variables related to deforestation risk (e.g., distance to roads, distance to urban centers, population density). As a first step in this process, an initial benchmark risk map is developed, based only on distance to forest edge. At least two alternate models must then be developed, which improve upon the benchmark map in fit and prediction. The data service provider selects the final risk map from these alternate maps. The final map assigns a projected deforestation density in hectares to each location mapped as stable forest in the final jurisdictional FCBM.

An independent expert review is conducted after the activity data and FCBM are developed, and then again after the risk map is developed.